Climate Blog
2025-06-13
2025 Bonn Climate Conference Special Feature: The Global Stocktake (GST)
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a cornerstone mechanism of the Paris Agreement, designed to comprehensively assess global progress in addressing climate change and provide strategic guidance for the next decade of climate action. This process spans multiple key areas, including mitigation, adaptation, financing, technology, and capacity building. Its overarching goal is to ensure global temperature rise remains within 1.5°C, while strengthening the commitments of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As outlined in Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the GST is conducted every five years. The first Global Stocktake (GST-1) was completed during COP28 in 2023, hosted by the UAE, with the second iteration (GST-2) scheduled for COP33 in 2028.
However, the results of GST-1 exposed deep-rooted international tensions. While the innovative dialogue approach used during GST-1 successfully increased participation from various stakeholders, the findings revealed that current parties’ actions fall short of what is necessary. Based on these efforts, global warming can only be limited to 2.4–2.6°C, well above the 1.5°C target. This assessment underscores the urgent need for stronger action, including accelerating the development of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and phasing out fossil fuels. Unfortunately, progress on these commitments has been minimal since COP28, and follow-up discussions at COP29 experienced significant setbacks, particularly on fossil fuel-related issues, where divisions among countries widened further.
Challenges and Divisions in GST-1
During COP28, GST-1 identified three key commitments for global action: Tripling renewable energy capacity; Doubling energy efficiency, and Phasing out fossil fuels. However, these goals faced serious challenges in the subsequent negotiations at COP29. Major oil-producing countries strongly opposed proposals to phase out fossil fuels and sought to dilute the GST’s role in driving stronger mitigation efforts. Additionally, these countries resisted linking GST outcomes to mandatory updates of NDCs, arguing that such a move exceeded the scope of the Paris Agreement. This resistance has stalled the progress of global climate action.
The issue of equity within the GST has also been a point of contention. The Paris Agreement emphasises the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), which calls on developed countries to shoulder greater responsibility for reducing emissions and supporting developing countries in addressing climate challenges. However, GST-1 placed greater focus on collective progress, rather than evaluating the specific contributions of developed countries. This omission has led to dissatisfaction among developing countries.
Financing has further deepened the divide. Developed countries have pushed for GST results to be reflected in the NDCs of all countries, while developing countries have argued that achieving more ambitious climate goals is contingent on the provision of sufficient financial support. Without guarantees of adequate funding, developing countries remain hesitant to commit to higher climate targets.
The involvement of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the GST process has been insufficient. Despite the innovative dialogue format of GST, many NGO voices were not fully incorporated into the process. This was particularly evident in cases where a lack of translation services prevented marginalised and vulnerable communities from expressing their concerns effectively. As a result, their priorities were not adequately reflected in the GST outcomes, further exacerbating concerns about the implementation of fairness and inclusivity principles.
Raising NDC Ambitions and Restarting GST Progress in Bonn
Despite these challenges, the Bonn Conference offers a critical opportunity to advance the GST process. The key lies in narrowing the gaps between countries, enhancing inclusivity, and working toward a consensus at COP30, which will enable the practical implementation of GST findings. One promising avenue is leveraging the annual GST-NDC dialogues to integrate GST outcomes into the development of NDCs. This could accelerate progress in renewable energy expansion and fossil fuel phase-outs, ensuring that updated NDCs reflect stronger commitments aligned with the 1.5°C target.
Additionally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is currently conducting its Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7). The GST process can incorporate the latest scientific research by aligning the release of AR7 findings with the timeline of GST-2, increasing the credibility of its recommendations and influencing the next round of NDC updates.
Hong Kong’s Role and Lessons: From Global to Local Action
The progress of the GST provides a valuable reference for Hong Kong’s climate action efforts. Currently, the Hong Kong Climate Action Plan 2050 lacks a comprehensive mechanism for monitoring and evaluating climate actions, particularly in the development of renewable energy, where specific targets and timelines are absent. As an international city, Hong Kong should actively participate in the global energy transition by promoting technological innovation and financial support, contributing to both regional and global climate action.
Hong Kong has the potential to wield greater influence in international collaborations by supporting the research and application of low-carbon technologies and exploring ways to integrate GST outcomes more closely with local climate policies. By doing so, Hong Kong can enhance its role as a leader in climate adaptation and mitigation, while aligning its policies with global efforts to combat climate change.