The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Past Event
2023-12-12
COP28 Stocktake #10
A Monumental Failure of Leadership: How COP28 Betrayed the Climate and Future Generations
The COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai have reached a perilous impasse, representing a massive failure of global leadership that puts vulnerable populations and future generations at grave risk. Despite increasingly dire warnings from climate scientists about the narrowing window to avoid catastrophic warming beyond 1.5°C, the talks have backslid on core issues like phasing out fossil fuels and providing finance to developing countries.
The pivotal moment came with the latest draft text from the UAE presidency, which provoked widespread outrage and rejection. By removing decisive language around phasing out fossil fuel and watering down provisions on adaptation, loss and damage, and carbon markets, the text revealed the oversized influence of fossil fuel producers on the process and called into question the suitability of an oil CEO like Sultan Al Jaber to steward the talks. This text set the stage for further regression and entrenched divisions between developed and developing countries.
Subsequent negotiations on key topics like the Global Stocktake and Article 6 rules on carbon markets showed little sign of compromise or ambition raising. Draft texts fell criminally short of the urgent emissions reductions and phase-outs called for by climate science to align with 1.5°C. Vulnerable countries decried texts as "utterly insufficient" and tantamount to a "death warrant," but found few willing partners among the big historical emitters and fossil fuel producers.
As COP28 is about to drag on without resolution, hopes are quickly fading for any meaningful deal that puts the world on track to 1.5°C. At best, the final text will likely contain vague references and empty promises that do not match either the scientific imperatives or moral obligations around climate justice. This failure of leadership from the international community, driven by fossil fuel interests and narrow national agendas, represents a devastating lost opportunity with severe consequences. Without an unequivocal directive to rapidly phase out fossil fuels and provide adequate support, the world will blow past 1.5°C, inflicting unspeakable suffering on vulnerable communities through rising seas, extreme weather, crop failures, and resource scarcity. COP28 risks being remembered as an abject failure rather than a transformative turning point for climate action.
There are specific areas that we would like to highlight:
- Position of Developing Countries on Global Stocktake:
The position of developing countries on the latest draft text for the Global Stocktake at COP28 highlights the deep linkage between climate finance and emissions reductions commitments. Developing countries appear willing to accept no mandated fossil fuel phase-out if it means no new climate finance obligations on developed countries. This reflects a pragmatic recognition that without financial and technological assistance from the global north, the global south will be unable to transition their economies away from fossil fuels. Decades of unfulfilled climate finance pledges have bred distrust that any new phase-out obligations will actually come with support.
This dynamic reveals a troubling reality at the heart of climate negotiations – binding global emissions reductions are impossible without climate finance, but developed countries are increasingly reluctant to commit to finance. The result could be a worst-case scenario of continued emissions without support for sustainable development and adaptation. Breaking this deadlock will require a cooperative third option – a fossil fuel phase-out paired with delivered climate finance and technology transfer. Developed countries must recognize their ethical and pragmatic imperative to provide resources that enable decarbonisation worldwide. Without this, both climate and justice imperatives will go unfulfilled.
- On Global Stocktake:
The latest draft text of the global stocktake from COP28 negotiations reveals a weakening of language and commitments compared to previous agreements. Most notably, any reference to phasing out fossil fuels has been removed. The energy section uses loose language about "actions that could include" renewables, nuclear energy and carbon capture, with a vague 2050 timeline for substituting unabated fossil fuels. There are no targets for reducing methane emissions.
Overall, the tone has shifted from "emphasizing the need for action" to simply "resolving to accelerate action." The draft still references outdated warming figures from 2011-2020 rather than the latest data showing 1.3C of warming. The guidance on next NDCs is weak, only "encouraging" economy-wide and 1.5C-aligned targets. On adaptation, it "calls on" countries to publish plans by 2025 but does not require it. Finance sections rely heavily on "noting" and "recalling" previous commitments rather than setting new obligations. There is particular concern that developed countries are still not meeting the $100 billion climate finance commitment.
The only bracketed text in the entire document relates to equity concerns about modelled 1.5C pathways. Loss and damage sections reiterate previous decisions without new commitments. The language on raising ambition is vague and passive. However, the draft retains acknowledgment of historical emissions and gaps in pre-2020 action. Overall, this draft represents a weakening of climate commitments and urgency compared to previous COP agreements. The lack of brackets or options will make it difficult to strengthen the text through negotiations. - On Global Goal on Adaptation:
The new draft text on the global adaptation goal presents mostly minor changes from previous versions, lacking substantial progress towards more concrete and ambitious targets. While some vaguer language has been replaced with stronger verbs like "urge", the draft still fails to provide specific timelines for reducing climate impacts. The 2025 governance targets remain static, simply tying achievement to provision of financing from developed nations. Little headway has been made in formulating quantitative metrics, with language retained on a 2-year process to develop progress indicators and potential numerical goals. Overall, the latest iteration illustrates a persistent lack of urgency and specificity around climate change adaptation actions, relying predominantly on voluntary contributions without clear mechanisms for accountability. To truly meet the scale of the climate crisis, the global community must move beyond rhetoric and set binding adaptation milestones and financing commitments.